Sonia Gandhi’s uphill task

By Praful Bidwai Fully eight weeks after the Congress lost legislature elections in four out of five Indian states, the party is acknowledging that it’s in deep crisis. It has serious difficulties in managing its allies. It’s demoralised. And the United Progressive Alliance government is losing ground as it drifts further Rightwards. Few Congress leaders believe the UPA can win the next Lok Sabha election, due in 2014, if it continues along its present course. They are bracing for the assembly elections in Gujarat, Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh, all Bharatiya Janata Party-ruled states, later this year, and in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh (also BJP-ruled), Rajasthan and Delhi next year. In partial acknowledgment of the crisis, central ministers Jairam Ramesh and Salman Khurshid have offered to step down and devote themselves to party work. There is talk of repeating the Kamaraj Plan, a major effort to revamp the Congress launched in 1963 by the then party president. Then, a reorganisation of the party, based on a purge of the cabinet, infused new energy into the Congress and strengthened its Left wing. Today, the party is worse placed to revamp itself than 50 years ago. It stands disconnected from grassroots-level social forces and processes. In most states, it’s largely in the grip of a plutocracy, which doesn’t even believe in the aam aadmi election slogan, leave alone the need to sink roots among the underprivileged. Worse, the national-level division of labour between the government and the party is such that the former overwhelms the Congress. The Manmohan Singh government remains a prisoner of pro-Big Business neoliberal policies which expropriate poor people’s livelihoods besides natural resources. These policies, and high inflation, which is eroding people’s purchasing power, have combined with innumerable corruption scandals to make the UPA deeply unpopular. In its second avatar, the UPA has forfeited much of its goodwill by failing to live up to its “inclusive growth” promise. India’s recent GDP growth has been profoundly iniquitous and greatly widened rich-poor disparities. What the Congress needs is not just house-cleaning and a personnel reshuffle, but a change of overall approach, policy and programmes which brings it in line with the natural centre of gravity of the Indian politics. Because of the unaddressed agendas of poverty, inequality and lack of opportunity in this society, that centre of gravity lies on the Left. The Congress must appeal to the poor from a Left-leaning platform. It can gain little by appealing to the consumerist elite. Yet, today, for the first time when in power nationally, the Congress has no Left-leaning ginger group within, comparable to the Young Turks of the 1960s or the Nehru Forum of the 1970s, which could impel it to reconnect to the masses. Nor is it subject to an external progressive influence, as it was in 2004-08, when it was dependent on the Left parties, which negotiated a Common Minimum Programme with it. Having a Left-leaning orientation and progressive pro-people agendas is not a matter of personal preference, but a precondition for electoral success for parties like the Congress. Unlike UPA-1, which introduced the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act and the Right to Information Act, UPA-2 can claim no major progressive measure which corrects structural inequalities and growth imbalances, barring to an extent the Right to Education Act, which gives underprivileged children access to school education. RTE’s implementation won’t be easy without grassroots mobilisations and civil society movements. In fact, UPA-2 came through as mean-minded and callous towards the poor in the way it made a hash of the Food Security Bill. It undermined the recommendations of the National Advisory Council headed by Sonia Gandhi; drastically reduced food grain entitlements and manipulated numbers to arbitrarily create three different categories of beneficiaries. Instead of establishing universal entitlements, it resorted to highly abuse-prone “targeting” of specific groups. The present government is bereft of new ideas which could reduce widespread poverty and deprivation, or help realise the people’s fundamental right people to live with human dignity. The latest National Sample Survey figures show that 66 percent of the people in both urban and rural areas are income-poor to the extent that they don’t have enough to eat. By all accounts, other forms of poverty, e.g. lack of access to common property resources like pastures and land from which to gather firewood, have sharply worsened. High GDP growth hasn’t made an iota of difference to this bottom two-thirds. Even if the GDP grows at 10 percent, their lot won’t improve. The problem isn’t growth; it’s distribution and how much of the new income generated goes to the underprivileged vis-à-vis the top 10-15 percent. The Indian government’s failure on distribution is all the more grave because its revenue income has more than tripled over the past five years. The Indian state is today a better placed than at any other time to do something substantial for the underprivileged. Instead, it has cut the NREGA budget and raised subsidies for the rich and various categories of businesses to obscene heights. It won’t be easy to repair UPA-2’s severely damaged image unless Congress president Sonia Gandhi takes some drastic measures. The first would be to end the present division of labour between her and Manmohan Singh under which he follows the most viciously anti-poor policies, which further alienate the poor. Gandhi, who apparently favours a Left-of-centre approach, probably set up this arrangement in the hope that her son would join the government and succeed Singh within a short span of time. After the Congress’s poor showing in Uttar Pradesh under Rahul Gandhi, that isn’t about to happen. In general, his strategy of rejuvenating the party through the Youth Congress with elected office-bearers hasn’t worked. Sonia Gandhi must play a more activist role vis-à-vis the government if the Congress is to be rejuvenated. This doesn’t mean that she should interfere in its day-to-day working. But it would be legitimate for her to set clear policy parameters within which the government must work. She has an institutional mechanism at hand to accomplish this – the National Advisory Council. The trouble is, unlike its predecessor, the present NAC is weak and compromised. Unlike in the past, there is no synergy between the NAC and external civil society or political forces. The council’s composition, which includes some diehard neoliberals, isn’t conducive to radically changing the orientation of government policies. Jean Dreze, an outstanding social scientist, and Amartya Sen’s collaborator, quit the NAC out of frustration over the Food Security Bill. Sonia Gandhi must reorganise the NAC by removing conservatives and inducting progressives into it. Dreze, Mani Shankar Aiyar and Jairam Ramesh are potential candidates for inclusion, besides civil society representatives. Equally important, the NAC should not be treated as a decorative body whose advice doesn’t bind the Congress and the government, or even as an institution which must negotiate its recommendations with the government. The short point is, the Congress lacks the internal resources and ideas to pull itself up by the bootstraps. It can acquire the necessary wherewithal only by reconnecting itself with social movements around defence of livelihoods against predatory capital and extension of people’s rights and entitlements. The NAC could be a useful mediating agency in this.

Timely interlude By Raoof Hasan Notwithstanding the apparent non-partisan approach of the speech, there are a few things in General Kayani’s written address at the Martyrs’ Day Ceremony that stand out by way of their relevance to the fast deteriorating situation in the country. It not only outlines the reasons why we are plunging into an unfathomable pit, it also shows the way to salvage national pride and dignity. Strictly speaking, the occasion did not warrant this intervention, but the rapid pace at which the country seems to be plunging into chaos and anarchy must be pressing hard on his mind as, indeed, it is on that of every conscientious citizen. Reiterating his faith in democracy, General Kayani said: “We believe in the stability and continuity of the democratic system in Pakistan. Pakistan’s progress, prosperity and uplift are linked with respect for the democratic traditions”. He elaborated: “The constitution of Pakistan has clearly outlined the role and responsibilities of all state institutions. It is, therefore, incumbent upon us that we conduct ourselves in accordance with the parameters as defined so that it would enhance respect and dignity both of our country and ourselves”. It is towards the end of his speech that he cautioned: “We should never forget that the singular purpose of the democratic system is to work for the welfare, prosperity and self-respect of the people as also to strive for a society that affords equal justice to all. This is the only way to further strengthen national security”. A telling indictment, indeed, interspersed with meaningful advice! Viewed in the backdrop of a government that has utterly failed in delivering to the people and which has literally abdicated governance at the altar of salvaging the ill-gotten billions of its leaders and their associates, the message is both a timely reminder and a warning: it is a reminder about the existence of a constitution and the need for all state institutions to work within their due limits as prescribed and it is a warning that democracy would not work if it does not provide avenues for the welfare, prosperity and self-respect of the people and ensure equal justice for all. Where does the government stand on the scale as outlined by the COAS? And why is that an army chief has to remind a democratic government about its responsibilities and failures? It would be interesting to note that, in the past, military commanders have taken over the reins of government for much less than what the incumbent administration has offered repeatedly on a platter. Be it’s intransigence in restoring an independent judiciary, or its dismantling of all state institutions, or its inherent spate of corruption, or its vile and wicked confrontation of the judiciary that has brought the country to the brink of paralysis, or a crude exposition of its self-inflicted persecution complex, there is a vast repertoire of grievances that would have brought down any government in the past. The fact that this government is still there and we have an army chief who is reminding it of its responsibilities rather than ordering the appropriate brigade to march in is a tribute to the sagacity and wisdom that marks the military mind today. This is so in spite of the numerous occasions when the so-called democratic government has tried to put the military and intelligence agencies’ command in the dock, accusing them of running a ‘state within a state’ as also to scuttle their authority and viability by promising organisational and personnel changes in exchange for longevity of its corrupt rule. After four years in the saddle, the government has virtually exhausted all avenues for initiating a reform of mind and mechanism. It is so deeply stuck in its errant ways that there is no hope for salvation. Practically, it is at war with every institution that is advocating the espousal of priorities that the army chief rightly outlined in his speech. On the other hand, the government appears determined to precipitate conditions leading to embracing political martyrdom so that it would score some precious points to ‘buy’ votes at the next elections as and when they are held. Mr Gilani’s conviction in the contempt of court proceedings was an opportunity when the government could have initiated the long overdue process of putting things right. This would have not only helped it erase the record of a not-too-impressive past, but may also have created propitious conditions for it to move on and complete its tenure. But, when the prime objective is to safeguard the illicit and fraudulently earned monies by its leaders, no such thing can go beyond the realm of a desirable possibility. So deeply sunk is the government in its own misdeeds, that there is no prospect of retrieval or reform. The likelihood is that it would continue going deeper into the quagmire with an over-riding concern that it may take the country along, too. It was hoped that better sense would prevail in the face of judicial injunctions and an effort would unfurl to reshape the national course in conformity with the parameters of the rule of law. In the wake of an outright announcement of war with the judiciary and blatant refusal to accept its verdicts now and in the future, what are the options that can still be used to extricate the country out of the mess that it is mired in? This is the context in which the army chief’s timely intervention should be viewed. His words do not reflect a desire to intervene or take over. On the contrary, they are a reminder to the incumbent government of its responsibilities to keep the democratic system afloat which would come about by ensuring the welfare, prosperity and self-respect of the people of Pakistan as also by creating conditions for affording them equal justice. It can’t be that while the ‘prime minister’ would refuse to submit before the dictate of the apex court, it would be expected of the ordinary mortals to continue doing so. In the event they also refuse to accept the judicial edicts, and when the state apparatus has been rendered dysfunctional because of rampant corruption and nepotism, the slide into anarchy would be the only prospect remaining. The environment is being further vitiated by raising divisive and controversial issues as a lead-up to the next elections. This vicious agenda includes the creation of new provinces drawn along linguistic and sectarian lines and using the state institutions to scuttle possible anti-government agitation. The NAB chief’s statement that President Zardari had asked him not to open cases against Nawaz Sharif when he took over the charge of the accountability bureau (and, understandably, he did not!) is extremely disturbing in this context. Now that there is a threat by the same Nawaz Sharif of starting a long march against the incumbent government, the interior minister has boasted publicly to file corruption references against the PML-N leadership. Why should corruption be hidden in the first place on whosoever’s behest? Why should the NAB chief toe a line that is not in conformity with the established principles of justice and fair play? From the ‘president’ to the ‘prime minister’ to the cabinet ‘ministers’ and a vast coterie of servile attendants, it is a bunch of crooks and convicts that rules the country today. What is even more gruesome is that this system, in its present shape and formulation, would continue to throw up people of dubious backgrounds and intentions to crowd the legislatures for an unending fun time. The army chief appears acutely aware of what ails the country. With a government failing in fulfilling all its primary responsibilities and with the prospects of agitation growing, are we headed for another intervention on the lines of what led to the restoration of an independent judiciary? After all, there is Article 190 in the Constitution binding all executive and judicial authorities throughout Pakistan to act in aid of the Supreme Court. Are we ever going to learn?

Hormuz flashpoint

The announcement on Thursday of a major arms deal between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United States comes at a time when regional tensions centred on the Straits of Hormuz, are rising by the day. There is no direct linkage between the $30 billion sale and the current crisis as the deal was planned over a year ago, but Iran will see the symbolism. The origins of the problem lie in the Iranian threat to close the Straits of Hormuz to oil-carrying traffic if the USA tightens sanctions still further against it; as a part of the American response to what it sees as an emerging nuclear capability on the part of Iran. The American response to the ‘Iranian threat’ is that it is a reflection of the ‘irrational’ behaviour of the Tehran government. This is not the first time that this vital seaway has been the focus of international tension. Both Gulf Wars saw increased naval activity by coalition navies, and the USA, Britain and others maintain standing patrols to protect the Straits which see an average of 13 tankers a day passing through carrying 33 percent of the world’s seaborne oil shipment, representing 17 percent of all oil traded worldwide. The Iranian threat to close the Straits as easily ‘as drinking a glass of water’ may be bravado as the Iranian navy would be no match for the forces quickly deployed against it – but the Iranians have naval assets which could severely interdict traffic. To strengthen their point the Iranians in the last week carried out naval exercises and deployed a surveillance aircraft to monitor a US carrier passing through the Strait. On Saturday there were conflicting reports regarding the firing of a long-range missile by the Iranians – with the semi-official ‘Fars’ news agency saying a missile was fired, but an Iranian navy spokesman saying it had not – but would be in the coming days. The seriousness of the situation must not be underestimated. From the Iranian perspective they are surrounded by hostile states bent on their overthrow or destruction. This is not mere paranoia, and although Iran is militarily no match for any of the states ranged against it, there is a real possibility that conflict could break out if Iran judged the threat to itself to be existential. America will aggressively protect its interests in the region, and will support Saudi Arabia which is the historic enemy of the Iranians. There may be a sense of desperation in the Iranian threat as the sanctions begin to bite, and the situation is on a hair-trigger. The Straits of Hormuz are one of the few places in the world which has the potential to spark major conflict. Cool heads rather than hot words are the need of the hour.