Ramazan’s lost chance for an Afghan truce

by Dr Maleeha Lodhi
The writer is special adviser to the Jang Group/Geo and a former envoy to the US and the UK.

A slew of questions were raised when a Chinook helicopter was shot down on 6 August in Afghanistan’s Wardak province killing 30 US servicemen – most of them elite Navy seals – and eight Afghans.

Will the heaviest loss of American lives in a single incident since 2001 heighten doubts about the Afghan mission among an already war-weary American public and Congress? Does the downing of the helicopter show the limits of America’s changed war effort that increasingly involves special operations missions? Will the blow signal a psychological shift in the war or was it a one-off? Does the incident dramatise the fragility of the transition underway, in which security responsibilities being transferred to Afghan forces have to be completed in 2014?

Most importantly what this development laid bare is the continuing tension in US policy between the declared goal of pursuing a negotiated political settlement and a military strategy still centred on kinetic actions. By the time the planned international conference convenes in Bonn this December, Washington wants to be able to announce that serious negotiations with the Taliban are in progress to end the decade long war. But are its military actions in Afghanistan serving this goal? Or are they undercutting the start of serious talks?

The answer is clouded in confusion. The helicopter incident came in the midst of escalating violence in Afghanistan. Recent months have seen a series of assassinations of high-profile Afghan officials and aggressive military actions by US/Nato forces targeting the Taliban in Kandahar, Helmand and extending to eastern Afghanistan. This cycle of violence has intensified even as trilateral meetings of the so-called core group – Afghanistan, Pakistan and the US – have been underway to discuss how to reach out to Taliban leaders and engage them in negotiations.

The Taliban’s hit and run tactics have increasingly taken the form of assassinating top Afghan government figures. Since March, several officials have been killed including President Hamid Karzai’s brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai in a campaign that has especially unsettled Kandahar.

Meanwhile US Special Forces have been conducting an intense campaign of kill-or-capture raids to eliminate mid-level commanders and degrade the Taliban. These have entailed controversial night raids, which have provoked sharp criticism from President Karzai and calls from Afghans for an end to the deadly operations. Nato officials say that between April and July there were around 2,832 special operations raids. The mission in which the US helicopter was shot down was one such operation.

Meanwhile the renewal of Drone-fired missile attacks into North Waziristan is part of the same US strategy of killing as many Taliban commanders as possible even as American officials accept that all Taliban groups could potentially be part of the peace process. Confusion abounds over what the US hopes to achieve by simultaneously wanting to target and talk to Taliban leaders. In this ‘kill-capture-or-reconcile’ strategy, the US expects Pakistan to assist by facilitating contacts and at the same time take action against Taliban leaders unwilling to ‘reconcile’. And this while the US itself continues to ramp up military actions against the Taliban.

This approach will produce more not less violence, and is hardly a promising setting for serious talks. The cycle of revenge killings by both sides will hinder not help the start of meaningful negotiations. That is why a change of course is essential especially as there are indications of Taliban interest in a negotiated settlement – reflected in recent statements posted on its website. Instead of pursuing the current fight-and-talk approach, Washington in fact had the opportunity to offer a Ramazan ceasefire to help prepare the ground for negotiations that it acknowledges is the only way to end its violent entanglement.

Such an offer, whether confined to selected areas or signalling an end to night raids, would have tested the Taliban’s interest in peace and given a sharp focus to the trilateral process. A halt in fighting during the holy month would have helped to ascertain who among the Taliban could be brought into the reconciliation process and which elements opposed talks. Instead violence this Ramazan has far surpassed that in the same month in previous years.

The US unwillingness so far to consider any interim confidence-building measures – suspending nighttime raids in return for the Taliban’s cessation of assassinations – may reflect the continuing lack of clarity in the Obama Administration about how to proceed in Afghanistan. Different parts of the administration seem to want different things. While the White House and the State Department appear to want the reconciliation process to accelerate and military strategy recalibrated to support that goal, it is not clear if the Pentagon and the CIA are fully on board. The US military still seems to balk at talks with the Taliban, regarding them as an admission of failure to win the war. Where the CIA stands on this is signalled by its continued use of Drones to hammer the Haqqani network in North Waziristan.

Whatever the internal dynamics in Washington, operational US strategy is still at odds with its declared objective of seeking a negotiated end to the war. A ‘pause’ in fighting – effected through a Ramazan truce or by one later – can open the diplomatic space and generate the momentum to speed up peace talks. Escalating special operation missions provide the Taliban an incentive to continue fighting and not abandon it in preference for talks.

The notion that more fighting will force the Taliban into negotiations means pursuing elusive battlefield gains without the assurance that the Taliban will respond to these methods. Bringing military pressure to bear in an effort to soften the adversary’s negotiating stance is a well-rehearsed tactic. But there comes a point when this runs it course and a pause in fighting is essential to pave the way for negotiations. That moment arrived when the Obama Administration declared months ago that it sought a political settlement and supported Afghan reconciliation.

The historical record of peace processes suggests that they start with some form of agreed stand down leading to a negotiated cease-fire. Pakistan has long advocated the need to advance the reconciliation process by peace building measures. It has stressed the importance of properly sequencing the steps necessary to secure a negotiated settlement. In recent exchanges with the US, top Pakistani military officials have said that the concept of ‘Afghan reconciliation’ needs to be turned into an operational plan. This means ensuring that the political strategy determines the military mission and steps taken in that regard advance a political settlement.

Pakistan has argued that a mutual reduction of violence will help to create the political conditions for dialogue. It has proposed a roadmap for an Afghan-led peace process that involves three phases and starts with a reciprocal de-escalation of violence to create the conditions for peace efforts. This is seen as setting the stage to persuade the Taliban to renounce Al-Qaeda – the most important strategic goal shared by the core group. Once this is achieved talks can make real progress. The third and final phase aimed at securing acceptance of the Afghanistan Constitution can follow later in a process in which the Afghan parties can discuss modifications to arrive at a new constitutional consensus.

It remains to be seen how the three parties in the core group are able to evolve agreement on translating the reconciliation objective into an implementable plan. What can give the early stage of this process a decisive impetus is if the US accepts mutual cessation of violence as a necessary starting point. A plausible and credible plan can then be crafted for a peace process that can over time deliver a negotiated settlement.

Why Azad Kashmir lags

by Zulfiqar Abbasi
The recently formed People’s Party government in Azad Kashmir has to confront several challenges, but two prominent issues seek close attention. The first is the stalled process of reconstruction of earthquake-hit areas of the northern part of Azad Kashmir – Muzaffarabad, Bagh and Rawalakot. The second is the resettlement of those affected by the construction of Mangla Dam. This poses a potentially serious socio-political challenge to the PPP government in Mirpur division, where the victims are resisting the refilling of the dam until their complete resettlement.

Apart from these issues, the new government has to address the growing sense of alienation and deprivation among various segments of the society such as youths and women. According to available statistics, youths form 65 percent of Azad Kashmir’s population (25 percent of the young people are below the age of 25) and are mostly unemployed. Even qualified women are jobless due to the limited scope for employment in the public sector. While the already shrunk private sector has been unable to cope with the emerging needs and challenges of employability due to the short-sighted polices of the successive governments in the past.

Current estimates show that around 300,000 jobs are required to cater to the needs of these promising youth in the next five to seven years. In the present scenario, the state does not have the capacity to create even 3000 jobs as the private sector has not been allowed to develop and nourish in the state.

There is no denying the fact that the government’s hands are tied under the constitutional arrangements between Azad Kashmir and Pakistan. A brief look at the territory’s Interim Constitution Act, 1974, reveals that all major areas of economic potential fall under the jurisdiction of the Azad Jammu and Kashmir Council, which is headed by the prime minister of Pakistan. These include hydropower generation, banking and finance, stock exchanges, telecommunication, oil and gas, tourism, mines and mineral exploration, aviation and air travel, state property, leasing and insurance and levy of tax on all incomes. In these areas the Azad Kashmir government has no say in policymaking.

The stringent control of the Azad Kashmir Council over the last 37 years has resulted in the poor state of development in the territory. Operationally it did not let Azad Kashmir’s governments formulate policies to undertake developmental initiatives in these critical sectors. The unfair policies of the Azad Kashmir Council have not only slowed down economic development but also resulted in widespread unemployment, poverty and lower living standards.

On the other hand, the successive governments of Azad Kashmir have performed better than the provinces of Pakistan in the subjects left with them, like health, education, electrification, local security, roads and communications, provision of clean drinking water, local government, rural development, and population welfare.

The council never tried to attract private investment for the industrial development of Azad Kashmir. Nor did it seek support from the Kashmiri diaspora. Nearly a million Kashmiris settled in the UK own assets worth billions of dollars and maintain bank deposits of around Rs2,000 billion in Pakistani banks. Lamentably, these commercial banks have never advanced even one percent of these deposits to support economic activity in the region. The Azad Kashmir Council has totally failed to devise a comprehensive policy to encourage banks to make investment in the employment generating sectors such as hydroelectric power, tourism and infrastructure-building projects.

The private sector is shrinking against the swelling public sector. Instead of encouraging the private sector to provide employment, the government has created ten districts and 28 subdivisions within an area of 5,134 square miles for a population of 3.5 million. Successive governments employed 125,000 persons in the government sector, which crippled the already slowed economy as the meagre resources available for development are spent on salaries and other privileges of government servants. These flawed policies led to the decay of local industry in the past one-and-a-half decade, leaving 40,000 people unemployed.

Over the last 37 years the tax collection authority of Azad Kashmir has failed to optimise tax collection, ignoring the biggest revenue-earning corporation like Wapda which are collecting sales tax worth billion of rupees on electricity generated by Mangla Power House located in Azad Kashmir but not depositing it into Azad Kashmir’s exchequer, causing huge financial losses to the territory.

Similarly, the net hydel profit of more than Rs120 billion is recoverable on account of the Mangla Powerhouse. Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa was recently paid Rs120 billion for Tarbela, Punjab Rs28 billion for Ghazi Barotha and Balochistan Rs120 billion as gas development surcharge for Sui gas. But Azad Kashmir has yet to get its outstanding amounts from Islamabad.

The PPP government in Azad Kashmir is in an advantageous position in the prevailing circumstances as the ruling party in Islamabad would not let it down if it makes a strong case before it.



The writer is president of the Jammu and Kashmir Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry and of the Centre for Peace, Development and Reforms.

Preying on parks

Database of parks, open spaces, and green belts must be notified and made accessible to the public

By Dr Noman Ahmed

A few weeks ago, two fishermen activists were killed in Karachi in cold blood. They were allegedly eliminated due to their involvement in campaigning to safeguard the mangrove forests of the city. And this is just one reflection on the state of environmental issues.

The environmental assets of the metropolis have been under threat. Unscrupulous elements want to transform them into private ventures for commercial benefits. Whosoever tries to question the status is confronted with dire consequences.

It is disappointing to observe that no worthwhile response has been given by the city administration to protect these precious assets and lives of people who raise their voices for saving the environment.

From a historical perspective, it has been established that Karachi was a city with an abundance of parks, playgrounds, open spaces, green belts and peri-urban land allocations for greenery.

Planners for Karachi and various administrators have made periodic contributions to ensure that the city continues to retain a large proportion of spaces under active landscape. For instance, the Karachi Development Plan (1973-85) which was undoubtedly one of the most comprehensive planning exercises done for the city, proposed to conserve all the existing parks with an upgraded landscape status.

A meticulous framework was laid down to incorporate related land uses for horticulture, urban agriculture, green islands and buffer zones. It is obvious that no landscape or horticultural activity can sustain without a corresponding allocation of suitable land for the purpose.

It is saddening to note that during the past three decades, organised attempts have been made by certain quarters with vested interests to encroach upon these previous public assets of the city. In addition, several development projects have affected the status and existence of parks and open spaces.

Road-widening schemes, commonly initiated to increase road-width, have been executed at the expense of trees and road shoulders spaces. This land allocation has been kept for environmental balance, visual aesthetics and ground water re-charging purposes.

One finds that increasing car ownership has forced city administrators to create greater room for vehicles at the cost of trees and pedestrian spaces. Rashid Minhas Road, University Road, Abul Hasan Isphahani Road, Preedy Street, Shahrah-e-Pakistan, and Shahrah-e-Ibne Sina are only a few mentions in this regard.

Organised encroachment of park land and green spaces is also undertaken by clandestine mafias. The campaign of Gutter Baghicha in western part of Karachi is an example. A brave activist, Nisar Baloch, who was actively campaigning to safeguard this vital landscape, was murdered in November 2009.

Office-bearers of a well-known non-governmental organisation were threatened of dire consequences for their public service litigation efforts for protecting green spaces. The incident of Kidney Hill in societies area is an example. Many land use conversions have been done in blatant violation of law.

Foundation-stone of a hospital has been laid on a large piece of land in Block-7, Gulshan-e-Iqbal. Surveys and investigations conducted by Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) inform that more than two dozen plots in formal planned schemes have been illegally grabbed by different interest groups.

A five-acre park/playground plot on Kashmir Road has been converted into marriage gardens. The Webb Ground in the Lines Area is being taken over by a store. The matter has been subjudice. Many neighbourhood parks in North Nazimabad, Gulshan-e-Iqbal, Orangi Town and Gulistan-e-Jauhar have been converted into residential plots, commercial high rises and other prohibited land uses.

NGOs, lawyers, and other professionals have made efforts to protect city landscape from encroachment and conversion. Different approaches have been adopted by these people to fulfil the most vital civic responsibility. Dialogue with politicians, administrators and decision-makers can be one aspect to ameliorate the situation.

Experience has shown that activism cannot succeed unless reinforced by mobilised support of the masses and other stakeholders. There are several vital measures that must be initiated without delay. Database of parks, open spaces, green belts and other category of environmental assets must be notified and made accessible to common public.

This shall ensure public scrutiny and consequent public action. The print and electronic media must give wider coverage to violations of land use rights. Times have proved that this is the single most important input to pressurise those going for vested interests. And corporate stakeholders should extend a helping hand through the business clout and financial assistance. With an objective and fearless cadre of public activists, park and green spaces in the city can have a much better future.