Pakistan needs to address issues that cast a dark shadow over its future
By Raza Rumi
Strange things are happening. Two months after a natural disaster hit millions of people and created essential prerequisites for an economic meltdown, the focus of Pakistan's ruling elite -- elected and unelected -- remains on power politics. As if the utter lack of preparedness to cope with a disaster was not enough the response to the disaster and its monitoring by a holier than thou media is baffling. The primal cause of the post floods mismanagement, if were to believe the analysts on prime time TV and opinion piece writers from the press, is the corrupt clique headed by Mr. Zardari. Those with the most religious bent of minds have cited a divine wrath as a cause of this calamity. A few right wing newspapers have even blamed the United States and India to have caused this natural disaster to punish Pakistan for its nuclear weapons.
The genesis of such intellectual confusion and distortion of public debate lies in the way the Pakistani mind has evolved into a hydra-headed, paranoid and militarised being. This has been the greatest contribution of the Pakistani state to shape and craft a society that places a premium on nuclear weapons over citizen welfare and which demonises the political process and celebrates religious militancy as a just cause.
This is why militarism of a softer variety is back in full force. Undoubtedly, Pakistan army has done a tremendous job in rescuing people and ensuring that relief efforts are well-executed. However, this is neither unusual nor a matter of surprise as it happens to be an organised institution. But to apply this success in an emergency situation by a force trained to deal with urgent situations onto the domain of national governance brings back the central issue of Pakistan's statehood: the unresolved and now perhaps a permanent civil-military imbalance. It started with the TV channels eulogising army efforts and creating a binary between the army and the civvies -- a half truth and a rhetorical polemic with little substance. This was followed by calls for army intervention by the MQM and its nemesis, Mr Imran Khan. Luckily, for Pakistan the Generals appear to be in no mood to intervene and rock the applecart. Well, at least for now.
Once the threat of prospect of direct military rule was not given due attention, disguised formulae of indirect military rule have been propagated by the disgruntled among the political class and TV anchors. Debates have been held on Gen Kakar formula, the Bangladesh model of technocratic supremacy or a national government comprising the clean politicians. Sadly, judicial activism, howsoever earnest it might be, has not helped either. The reopening of NRO implementation debate, preceded by the interim orders on the 18th Amendment case, has created a situation of uncertainty and a near-collision between the executive and the judiciary. Mercifully, a showdown has been avoided in the short term.
Even prior to the floods the basic issues of economic management, political governance and terrorism had haunted the body-politic and continue to do so. However, the remarkable apathy that has been displayed by those who matter to 'real' issues once again shows the inherent culture of a post-colonial state which abandoned the reform agenda in the 1970s and since then has been eaten away from within and by geopolitical imperatives to literally prove Jinnah's anguish on having created a 'truncated' and 'moth-eaten' Pakistan.
In these circumstances, reform and social change are often confused with change of faces and which group of rent-seeking and patronage-doling elites should share power with the permanent establishment i.e., the military-bureaucratic complex, the big business and 'foreign' interests in Pakistan.
It is, therefore, critical to speak of a reform agenda for Pakistan and argue that the long-neglected agenda of state-building should now dominate public discourse. Let us recount the key five issues that require the attention of Pakistanis, their rulers and international partners.
Political stability: The search for stability is now a cliché and almost an unachievable goal in Pakistan. Having said that, it remains a paramount objective. The fragile democratic government has to be allowed to complete its tenure. It may reshuffle the cabinet, change the Prime Minister or even elect another set of coalition parties to govern but there is little use in repeating past mistakes through unrepresentative experiments in governance. They have never delivered in a factionalised, diverse and tense federation. Pakistan's key institutions -- the army, judiciary and the parliament -- stand to gain if they resolve to keep the system intact.
Economic recovery: Nothing is more important to revitalise the economy at this juncture. A low economic growth rate (0-1 percent) and high inflation (25 percent if efforts are not made to improve the situation) are a disaster formula given our needs and population explosion. The illogic of raising taxes and improving collection makes little sense as tax-collections cannot rise in times of recession. More importantly, the incentives for domestic investment need to be restored as we are now chronically suffering from a low savings (18 percent) and investment rate compared to so many other economies. Aid may be necessary in the short term but focus needs to shift on trade and the national security state will have to change its course and look eastwards and trade with India for immediate boost to small-scale manufacturing, agro-based industries.
Energy rents: Pakistan has been mired by its national security paradigm when it comes to forging regional alliances for energy trade. A decade has been lost quarrelling over minor details and putting bilateral issues with India before everything else. It is essential that the energy-deficient India is now used as a huge opportunity by the Pakistani state to achieve major growth gains and employment in the immediate term. The various pipelines and energy corridors earlier planned now need to be put into place. Yes, Balochistan is a problem but what stops the federal authorities to engage with the separatist leaders and allay their concerns and fears.
Full implementation of 18th Amendment: Related to the above, the political class has made a historical beginning by correcting the earlier wrongs through devising a new framework for federal governance. It should be a priority but a government on a life-boat can hardly achieve that if the opposition does not work with it. The provinces have to fast-track their capacities and institutional reform to take additional responsibilities. In fact, post-flood reconstruction provides a unique opportunity for the provinces to put their institutions in order, devolve more power to the local level and create lean and efficient provincial governments that can deliver and not just collect and pocket rents. The redundant provincial departments need to be abolished and capacities should flow to the local level.
Anti-terrorism efforts: It would be a non-starter if the PPP-ANP combine continues to be at the forefront of countering militancy. The government will not succeed if PML-N and other political forces do not join hands to fight the biggest menace of our times.
Social protection and youth: Given the alarming rates of poverty and a youth population, it is essential that the state must arrest an impending social holocaust and focus on these vital areas and undertake programmes which cater to the young, poor and the marginalised sections of Pakistan. This is linked to economic growth as well as realignment of national priorities and considering the dangers that afflict Pakistani society.
In conclusion, the Pakistani state needs to address issues that cast a dark shadow over its future. The media and the chatterati need to take stock of the actual crises rather than do palace intrigues and power-politics.
Oct 4, 2010
Post-flood indicators
By Hussain H. Zaidi
In its recent assessment of Pakistan's post floods economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that the impact of the calamity goes beyond humanitarian crisis to have significant implications for growth and external and fiscal accounts, leading to revision of the current financial year's budget. The IMF has announced $451 million emergency credit to ease pressures on the public exchequer and foreign exchange reserves.
The economy, according to the IMF, was picking up before the floods hit the country. The real GDP grew by 4.1 percent, the current account deficit narrowed to $3.5 billion (2 per cent of GDP) and both exports ($19.63 billion) and remittances ($8.90 billion) went up during the last financial year (FY10). However, the budget deficit surpassed the 5.1 percent revised target to reach 6.3 per cent of GDP.
The economic cost of floods is likely to be enormous in terms of loss caused to agriculture, livestock, infrastructure and potential GDP. The agricultural sector, which accounts 21 percent of GDP and 45 percent of employment, has been hit the hardest as more than 2.3 million hectares of standing crops, including 3.5 million bales of cotton, have been washed away.
Sugarcane and rice crops have also been significantly damaged. Since Pakistan is an exporter of primary products and agriculture and livestock-dependent manufactured goods (textiles, leather), the country's export performance is likely to be affected. Besides, the country will have to import essential commodities to meet the domestic shortage as well as capital goods for post-floods reconstruction and rehabilitation, which will inflate the import bill.
On the basis of data provided by the Pakistan government, the IMF has predicted that during the current fiscal year, real GDP growth will come down to 2.8 percent ($190.20 billion) from the pre-floods estimates of 4.3 percent ($190.66 billion); the current account deficit will increase to 3.1 percent ($5.86 billion), 0.6 percentage points higher than the pre floods estimates of 2.5 percent ($4.62 billion); inflation will rise to 13.5 percent from 11.7 percent estimates before the deluge; exports and imports will grew by 3 percent and 8.7 percent respectively compared with earlier estimates of 4.7 and 6.9 percent resulting into trade deficit of $13.52 billion.
External debt will surpass the post floods projections of $58.55 billion to reach $60.40 billion. Foreign direct investment is projected to be $3.08 billion down from original forecast of $3.28 billion, while foreign portfolio investment will be $278 million down from the $428 million projection.
Rehabilitation of the flood-hit people will put serious pressures on the public exchequer in a situation when revenue collection is likely to be lower due to disruption of economic activity. Accordingly, the government will have to re-prioritise budgetary allocation as well as broaden the tax base resulting into what is commonly called a mini budget.
The first will entail diversion of development expenditure to rehabilitation of floods affected people. However, the second is easier said than done and the axe is likely to fall again on the salaried class in the form of a temporary 10 percent income tax surcharge as committed by the government in a letter dated September 10, 2010 addressed to the IMF requesting for the emergency credit. The same letter also commits the government to reform the general sales tax (GST) incorporating features of a value added tax (VAT).
The major economic indicators in the post floods scenario present a mixed picture. During first two months of the current fiscal year (FY11 July August), current account deficit went up to $944 million compared with $635 million for the corresponding period of the last financial year (FY11 July August).
Imports increased to $6.25 billion compared with $5.16 billion; however, exports also rose to $3.56 billion compared with $2.90 billion. Foreign investment dropped to $267 million from $405 million; however, remittances increased to $1.72 billion from $1.52 billion. Inflation (CPI) went up to 12.79 percent from 10.93 percent during the corresponding period of last fiscal year.
The devastation wrought by the floods is so enormous that the Pakistan government cannot cope with it on its own and thus direly needs foreign assistance. According to Economic Affairs Division, as of September 24, 2010 total multilateral and bilateral pledges worth $1.46 billion have been made of which $411.28 million are in the form of grant and $709 million in kind.
However, only $53.38 million grant has been disbursed, while relief goods worth $285 million have been received. In addition, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank will provide $1 billion and $500 million respectively in credit. The IMF's $451 million loan has already been mentioned.
An important development is the indication given by the European Union (EU), which is Pakistan's single largest trading partner, to reduce tariffs on certain number of products of Pakistan's export interest to help the country grapple with the devastation caused by the floods. However, since the proposed tariff concessions will be Pakistan-specific, the EU will be required to obtain a waiver from the WTO in order to make them compatible with the international trade regime.
Granted that such a waiver is obtained, which itself is a difficult task, the actual impact on Pakistan's exports will be contingent upon several factors, including the products on which tariff concessions will be granted, the margin of preference, the period during which tariffs will be lowered, and the domestic supply side situation.
Floods have undone the economic recovery -- fragile though it was -- that began in the last financial year. The economic slowdown will result in loss of jobs and incomes as well as revenue. The level of domestic savings (10.1 per cent of GDP) and investment (16.6 per cent), which is already quite low, will further come down and reduce future growth prospects.
Balance of payment problems will increase partly due to projected hike in the current account deficit and partly due to projected fall in foreign investment, which will make the country more dependent on foreign credit thus adding to total foreign debt as well as debt servicing. The increase in inflation, particularly of food items, will hit hard the salaried class, which will be required to pay more in the form of flood surcharge as well as a 'reformed' GST.
In its recent assessment of Pakistan's post floods economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stated that the impact of the calamity goes beyond humanitarian crisis to have significant implications for growth and external and fiscal accounts, leading to revision of the current financial year's budget. The IMF has announced $451 million emergency credit to ease pressures on the public exchequer and foreign exchange reserves.
The economy, according to the IMF, was picking up before the floods hit the country. The real GDP grew by 4.1 percent, the current account deficit narrowed to $3.5 billion (2 per cent of GDP) and both exports ($19.63 billion) and remittances ($8.90 billion) went up during the last financial year (FY10). However, the budget deficit surpassed the 5.1 percent revised target to reach 6.3 per cent of GDP.
The economic cost of floods is likely to be enormous in terms of loss caused to agriculture, livestock, infrastructure and potential GDP. The agricultural sector, which accounts 21 percent of GDP and 45 percent of employment, has been hit the hardest as more than 2.3 million hectares of standing crops, including 3.5 million bales of cotton, have been washed away.
Sugarcane and rice crops have also been significantly damaged. Since Pakistan is an exporter of primary products and agriculture and livestock-dependent manufactured goods (textiles, leather), the country's export performance is likely to be affected. Besides, the country will have to import essential commodities to meet the domestic shortage as well as capital goods for post-floods reconstruction and rehabilitation, which will inflate the import bill.
On the basis of data provided by the Pakistan government, the IMF has predicted that during the current fiscal year, real GDP growth will come down to 2.8 percent ($190.20 billion) from the pre-floods estimates of 4.3 percent ($190.66 billion); the current account deficit will increase to 3.1 percent ($5.86 billion), 0.6 percentage points higher than the pre floods estimates of 2.5 percent ($4.62 billion); inflation will rise to 13.5 percent from 11.7 percent estimates before the deluge; exports and imports will grew by 3 percent and 8.7 percent respectively compared with earlier estimates of 4.7 and 6.9 percent resulting into trade deficit of $13.52 billion.
External debt will surpass the post floods projections of $58.55 billion to reach $60.40 billion. Foreign direct investment is projected to be $3.08 billion down from original forecast of $3.28 billion, while foreign portfolio investment will be $278 million down from the $428 million projection.
Rehabilitation of the flood-hit people will put serious pressures on the public exchequer in a situation when revenue collection is likely to be lower due to disruption of economic activity. Accordingly, the government will have to re-prioritise budgetary allocation as well as broaden the tax base resulting into what is commonly called a mini budget.
The first will entail diversion of development expenditure to rehabilitation of floods affected people. However, the second is easier said than done and the axe is likely to fall again on the salaried class in the form of a temporary 10 percent income tax surcharge as committed by the government in a letter dated September 10, 2010 addressed to the IMF requesting for the emergency credit. The same letter also commits the government to reform the general sales tax (GST) incorporating features of a value added tax (VAT).
The major economic indicators in the post floods scenario present a mixed picture. During first two months of the current fiscal year (FY11 July August), current account deficit went up to $944 million compared with $635 million for the corresponding period of the last financial year (FY11 July August).
Imports increased to $6.25 billion compared with $5.16 billion; however, exports also rose to $3.56 billion compared with $2.90 billion. Foreign investment dropped to $267 million from $405 million; however, remittances increased to $1.72 billion from $1.52 billion. Inflation (CPI) went up to 12.79 percent from 10.93 percent during the corresponding period of last fiscal year.
The devastation wrought by the floods is so enormous that the Pakistan government cannot cope with it on its own and thus direly needs foreign assistance. According to Economic Affairs Division, as of September 24, 2010 total multilateral and bilateral pledges worth $1.46 billion have been made of which $411.28 million are in the form of grant and $709 million in kind.
However, only $53.38 million grant has been disbursed, while relief goods worth $285 million have been received. In addition, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank will provide $1 billion and $500 million respectively in credit. The IMF's $451 million loan has already been mentioned.
An important development is the indication given by the European Union (EU), which is Pakistan's single largest trading partner, to reduce tariffs on certain number of products of Pakistan's export interest to help the country grapple with the devastation caused by the floods. However, since the proposed tariff concessions will be Pakistan-specific, the EU will be required to obtain a waiver from the WTO in order to make them compatible with the international trade regime.
Granted that such a waiver is obtained, which itself is a difficult task, the actual impact on Pakistan's exports will be contingent upon several factors, including the products on which tariff concessions will be granted, the margin of preference, the period during which tariffs will be lowered, and the domestic supply side situation.
Floods have undone the economic recovery -- fragile though it was -- that began in the last financial year. The economic slowdown will result in loss of jobs and incomes as well as revenue. The level of domestic savings (10.1 per cent of GDP) and investment (16.6 per cent), which is already quite low, will further come down and reduce future growth prospects.
Balance of payment problems will increase partly due to projected hike in the current account deficit and partly due to projected fall in foreign investment, which will make the country more dependent on foreign credit thus adding to total foreign debt as well as debt servicing. The increase in inflation, particularly of food items, will hit hard the salaried class, which will be required to pay more in the form of flood surcharge as well as a 'reformed' GST.
Back in bad shape
The required infrastructure should be rapidly developed to minimise impact of floods
By Shakeel Ahmed Ramey
The devastation caused by recent floods has reached alarming proportions. The scale and intensity of damage has stunned the world community and it will take time before the actual loss and sufferings of the people can be gauged.
Human suffering will only be exacerbated by severe blows dealt to the agricultural sector, which will longer term impacts. Standing crops have been washed away and millions of livestock lost. Agriculture is the prime source of income in major parts of the flood-affected areas and the losses incurred have had a direct effect on the livelihoods of the farmers.
Many of the farmers have limited resources and restricted options of livelihood. The already rampant poverty in these areas will further increase as farmers scramble to reconstruct their livelihoods. The losses sustained by the agricultural sector will also worsen food insecurity situation across the country with more acute effects in those flood affected.
Much of the forest cover has also been destroyed, especially in the northern areas. In Pakistan, the forest cover was already below the international level and the floods have only aggravated the situation. Effects on the agricultural sector and forestry will continue to be felt in the coming days.
Due to severe damage incurred by transportation and communication, many areas have lost links to the main networks, making it almost impossible to conduct rescue and relief work. While national and international relief efforts are on, there is a debate raging, which is trying to decipher the dynamics that caused such a disaster. Pakistan went through a record 12 inches rain within 36 hours during this monsoon season.
The monsoon-fed Indus River, which acts as the backbone of the agricultural system, became a vessel of destruction as rain caused the river to flood the valley. Many scientists and climate change experts are of the view that global warming is the primary reason of such unprecedented floods.
While changes in global environment continue to shock and alarm populations, it has already been predicted by climate experts that abnormal rains, floods, heat waves, landslides and fires would become inevitable in the future. In fact, the Fourth Assessment report of IPCC came out with clear predication of abnormal rains, floods, and heat waves in certain areas of the world, including South Asia.
Russia went through the worst heat wave of its history, with high temperatures, lack of rain and wildfires having destroyed more than a third of cultivable area in Russia. Forests near Moscow were under heavy fire, engulfing the whole city of Moscow in smoke.
China, too, had to bear the brunt of nature as landslides, heavy rains and floods erupted in certain provinces. 1,144 people are confirmed dead in China but this masks the intensity of tragedy as there were at least 45, 000 people in Zhouqu county alone who had been evacuated. The destruction to infrastructure and livelihood sources lead to losses of hundreds of millions of dollars.
Experts have predicted that in the coming years such instances will not only become more frequent but also occur with increased intensity. This is attributed to climate change which is rapidly altering the natural environment we live in. Not only does this series of events reconfirm the validity of climate change science, dispelling any notions of the phenomenon being a mere myth but has also prompted a renewed global concern for the future of the planet.
Exposed to multiple threats, Pakistan ranks very high on the vulnerability table to climate change and is included in World Bank's list of 12 most vulnerable countries to climate change. Higher temperatures, heavy rains, sea level rise, droughts, loss of biodiversity and productivity losses in agricultural sector are anticipated in Pakistan due to climate change.
Pakistan has been bearing the impact of climate change without being aware of it; long spells of drought, floods in non-flood prone areas in 2007-08, changing rainfall patterns, etc, are trends that are visible representations of change in the climate. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) had clearly mentioned that in the coming years, rains will intensify in the northern region of the country.
The present floods in Pakistan are due to heavy and abnormal rains during the monsoon which caused the Indus River to overflow. However, it must be noted that changing rainfall patterns will not be the only source of floods in the coming years. The recent cyclone in the Arabian Sea; Cyclone Phet signaled warnings across the coastal areas of Pakistan as tens of thousand of people were evacuated from vulnerable areas along the Sindh and Balochistan coast.
The greater risk that confronts the coastal areas is that of sea level rise; a trend being observed all over the globe and fast gaining momentum. Karachi, in particular, is particularly vulnerable as it is 8 feet below the sea level placing it at a high risk of floods.
Functioning as the economic hub of the country, any calamity in Karachi will have strong repercussions for the whole economic fabric of the country. At the same time, the lives of its 20 million inhabitants will be at great risk. Floods due to sea level rise will also impact agricultural and productive land converting them to non-productive land, especially in areas such as Badin.
Pakistan cannot control or reverse climate change nor can it avoid natural calamities. However Pakistan can devise policies, implementation tools and infrastructure to minimise the impact of these natural disasters. Pakistan can take preventative measures to ensure that these disasters are not converted into a human tragedy in future.
Adaptation and pre-emptive planning are key strategic steps which can help to minimise the impact of climate change. First, Pakistan has to develop a comprehensive Adaptation Action Plan for the country; keeping in mind the vulnerabilities of the country to climate change, which poses multiple threats simultaneously. Second, Pakistan has to focus on reservoir development, in particular the construction of new reservoirs.
Big dams may have their social and environmental problems, but they can play a very crucial role in minimising the impact of floods due to rain. Besides flood control, these dams can also help generate cheap electricity and ensure timely availability of water for agriculture, drinking and industry. Politics should be kept aside and focus should be shifted on the construction of new dams which have become a dire need for the country. Third, the forest cover of the country which is already well below the international level should be increased.
Currently, an opposite trend is being observed as forest logging is emerging as a big issue forest sector in Pakistan. In 1992, after the flood in Pakistan, it was pointed out that an increased reduction of the forest cover had made the floods even more devastating. Forests cannot control or mitigate floods entirely but they can play a significant role in reducing severity of flood. At the same time, forest can also help to reduce soil erosion caused by heavy rains and floods which can diffuse the impact of intense flooding. Fourth, Pakistan must also rapidly develop infrastructure to avoid or minimize impacts of floods due to sea level rise.
Physical infrastructure will have to be constructed to secure Karachi and other low-lying coastal areas. Increasing the mangrove forest cover along the coastal line will also serve to act as a defense against floods from predicted sea level rise along the coasts of Sindh and Balochistan.
For the implementation of adaptation plan and physical interventions mentioned above, a huge amount of investment is required. Pakistan does not possess such resources and its ability to invest in the future is also compromised as it struggles to deal with consequences of the recent floods. However, Pakistan can secure funding to invest in these options from the international community through Clean Development Mechanisms's Adaptation Fund, REDD, etc, which are in place to assist developing countries cope with the impact of climate change. Although these resources will not be tailor made to the needs of country, however, they will serve to minimise burden of the country.
These funds will not be loans, thus will not entangle the country in another web of debts. It depends on government and state players to play their cards right and benefit from these resources. Efforts should be directed towards adaptive responses to climate change lest another tragedy falls upon the people of Pakistan.
By Shakeel Ahmed Ramey
The devastation caused by recent floods has reached alarming proportions. The scale and intensity of damage has stunned the world community and it will take time before the actual loss and sufferings of the people can be gauged.
Human suffering will only be exacerbated by severe blows dealt to the agricultural sector, which will longer term impacts. Standing crops have been washed away and millions of livestock lost. Agriculture is the prime source of income in major parts of the flood-affected areas and the losses incurred have had a direct effect on the livelihoods of the farmers.
Many of the farmers have limited resources and restricted options of livelihood. The already rampant poverty in these areas will further increase as farmers scramble to reconstruct their livelihoods. The losses sustained by the agricultural sector will also worsen food insecurity situation across the country with more acute effects in those flood affected.
Much of the forest cover has also been destroyed, especially in the northern areas. In Pakistan, the forest cover was already below the international level and the floods have only aggravated the situation. Effects on the agricultural sector and forestry will continue to be felt in the coming days.
Due to severe damage incurred by transportation and communication, many areas have lost links to the main networks, making it almost impossible to conduct rescue and relief work. While national and international relief efforts are on, there is a debate raging, which is trying to decipher the dynamics that caused such a disaster. Pakistan went through a record 12 inches rain within 36 hours during this monsoon season.
The monsoon-fed Indus River, which acts as the backbone of the agricultural system, became a vessel of destruction as rain caused the river to flood the valley. Many scientists and climate change experts are of the view that global warming is the primary reason of such unprecedented floods.
While changes in global environment continue to shock and alarm populations, it has already been predicted by climate experts that abnormal rains, floods, heat waves, landslides and fires would become inevitable in the future. In fact, the Fourth Assessment report of IPCC came out with clear predication of abnormal rains, floods, and heat waves in certain areas of the world, including South Asia.
Russia went through the worst heat wave of its history, with high temperatures, lack of rain and wildfires having destroyed more than a third of cultivable area in Russia. Forests near Moscow were under heavy fire, engulfing the whole city of Moscow in smoke.
China, too, had to bear the brunt of nature as landslides, heavy rains and floods erupted in certain provinces. 1,144 people are confirmed dead in China but this masks the intensity of tragedy as there were at least 45, 000 people in Zhouqu county alone who had been evacuated. The destruction to infrastructure and livelihood sources lead to losses of hundreds of millions of dollars.
Experts have predicted that in the coming years such instances will not only become more frequent but also occur with increased intensity. This is attributed to climate change which is rapidly altering the natural environment we live in. Not only does this series of events reconfirm the validity of climate change science, dispelling any notions of the phenomenon being a mere myth but has also prompted a renewed global concern for the future of the planet.
Exposed to multiple threats, Pakistan ranks very high on the vulnerability table to climate change and is included in World Bank's list of 12 most vulnerable countries to climate change. Higher temperatures, heavy rains, sea level rise, droughts, loss of biodiversity and productivity losses in agricultural sector are anticipated in Pakistan due to climate change.
Pakistan has been bearing the impact of climate change without being aware of it; long spells of drought, floods in non-flood prone areas in 2007-08, changing rainfall patterns, etc, are trends that are visible representations of change in the climate. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007) had clearly mentioned that in the coming years, rains will intensify in the northern region of the country.
The present floods in Pakistan are due to heavy and abnormal rains during the monsoon which caused the Indus River to overflow. However, it must be noted that changing rainfall patterns will not be the only source of floods in the coming years. The recent cyclone in the Arabian Sea; Cyclone Phet signaled warnings across the coastal areas of Pakistan as tens of thousand of people were evacuated from vulnerable areas along the Sindh and Balochistan coast.
The greater risk that confronts the coastal areas is that of sea level rise; a trend being observed all over the globe and fast gaining momentum. Karachi, in particular, is particularly vulnerable as it is 8 feet below the sea level placing it at a high risk of floods.
Functioning as the economic hub of the country, any calamity in Karachi will have strong repercussions for the whole economic fabric of the country. At the same time, the lives of its 20 million inhabitants will be at great risk. Floods due to sea level rise will also impact agricultural and productive land converting them to non-productive land, especially in areas such as Badin.
Pakistan cannot control or reverse climate change nor can it avoid natural calamities. However Pakistan can devise policies, implementation tools and infrastructure to minimise the impact of these natural disasters. Pakistan can take preventative measures to ensure that these disasters are not converted into a human tragedy in future.
Adaptation and pre-emptive planning are key strategic steps which can help to minimise the impact of climate change. First, Pakistan has to develop a comprehensive Adaptation Action Plan for the country; keeping in mind the vulnerabilities of the country to climate change, which poses multiple threats simultaneously. Second, Pakistan has to focus on reservoir development, in particular the construction of new reservoirs.
Big dams may have their social and environmental problems, but they can play a very crucial role in minimising the impact of floods due to rain. Besides flood control, these dams can also help generate cheap electricity and ensure timely availability of water for agriculture, drinking and industry. Politics should be kept aside and focus should be shifted on the construction of new dams which have become a dire need for the country. Third, the forest cover of the country which is already well below the international level should be increased.
Currently, an opposite trend is being observed as forest logging is emerging as a big issue forest sector in Pakistan. In 1992, after the flood in Pakistan, it was pointed out that an increased reduction of the forest cover had made the floods even more devastating. Forests cannot control or mitigate floods entirely but they can play a significant role in reducing severity of flood. At the same time, forest can also help to reduce soil erosion caused by heavy rains and floods which can diffuse the impact of intense flooding. Fourth, Pakistan must also rapidly develop infrastructure to avoid or minimize impacts of floods due to sea level rise.
Physical infrastructure will have to be constructed to secure Karachi and other low-lying coastal areas. Increasing the mangrove forest cover along the coastal line will also serve to act as a defense against floods from predicted sea level rise along the coasts of Sindh and Balochistan.
For the implementation of adaptation plan and physical interventions mentioned above, a huge amount of investment is required. Pakistan does not possess such resources and its ability to invest in the future is also compromised as it struggles to deal with consequences of the recent floods. However, Pakistan can secure funding to invest in these options from the international community through Clean Development Mechanisms's Adaptation Fund, REDD, etc, which are in place to assist developing countries cope with the impact of climate change. Although these resources will not be tailor made to the needs of country, however, they will serve to minimise burden of the country.
These funds will not be loans, thus will not entangle the country in another web of debts. It depends on government and state players to play their cards right and benefit from these resources. Efforts should be directed towards adaptive responses to climate change lest another tragedy falls upon the people of Pakistan.
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